One year later...

It wasn't this one, I am sure...

It was perfectly bizarre, and ironic, and somehow appropriate, to see and hear a helicopter in the airspace ahead of me as I left the Boulder Vets Center today.  There are rarely helos ("choppers" if your service insists on that term) above this town, so rare that it's practically jarring to hear the rotors.  It caused me to smile and shake my head, as I'd realized earlier why the dates of January 8 & 10 consciously stood out to me -- they were the dates I left Kabul and Bagram, respectively, one year ago.

Kabul, Jan '11: Conference Room in Winter

Jan '11: Bagram bus stop

Jan '11: Bagram, amidst the haze...

Jan '11: Dawn over Hindu Kush...and barriers

Jan '11: Final departure...for now.

Not that it's the first time I find myself marking the passage of time since a deployment shook me from a completely different life in the U.S. and then returned me half-dazed...but as this latter experience was longer, and somehow more personal, I find that I'm paying more attention to the anniversaries.  The blog has definitely languished again, and for that I'm less than pleased with myself.  There are the experiences I never caught up to recount, as well as the developments and incidents which continue to unfold, including major shifts in strategy, organization and approach.  I'll highlight a couple of those here, and hope still to finally post photos and stories from the archives...and I tremendously appreciate every reader who has encouraged me to keep this active.  While my motivations for blogging from Afghanistan were many, that isn't the case for blogging from here.  In contrast, it's only the occasional urge to keep it up that motivates me to do exactly that, especially a full year removed.

Jan '11: Last glimpse of Afghan mountains...

Dec '11: Usual glimpse of Rocky Mountains

It gets harder and harder to find news out of Afghanistan, which often is attributed to 'war weariness' -- an excuse I truly doubt when such a small percentage of the U.S. population is even aware that the war trudges on.  The news that does emerge usually covers the latest attacks, which tend to occur outside of Kabul, therefore rarely are covered at the site by western media...and therefore lack context as a result.  A typical rundown from today follows, with discouraging news from completely different and unconnected regions cobbled together (and a quote from my old colleague Maj. Gen. Azimi)...

10 die as Taliban storm Afghan government building

More relevant to my forecast from last month's post about bitter divisions coming to the surface between Northern Alliance leaders and Karzai supporters is this intriguing development, brought to my attention by my former colleague and NTM-A counterpart Joe Holstead.  I find it significant that some of the leaders with whom the United States sided in 2001 now feel so threatened by the concentration of power in Kabul and the government's future direction that they openly warn against the peace process that our Coalition officially supports, something not much heard openly just a year or so ago...

AP Photo/Ferdinand Ostrop

Afghan opposition urges caution in Taliban talks

I hope to have more on-scene accounts of the 'view from the ground' as some good friends are either back in parts of Afghanistan now in various capacities, or on their way.  In addition, my cousin should be on the ground there by late Spring, and my younger brother continues to play an unheralded part in the war effort, as he and his soldiers train Jordanian forces to serve in the Coalition.  I look upon their deployments with a big brother's concern, but I admit a touch of envy too, as the restlessness rises to not only find relevance again in this pivotal struggle, but to see my Afghan friends again, and to witness firsthand the changes that are sure to come in the next couple of years.

Finally, here's wishing everyone a very belated Sal-e Now Mubarek (Happy New Year)!  I joined the Twitter beast at last, and have been forwarding insight, analysis & updates on Afghanistan -- I post much more often when it doesn't keep me up all night.  Follow me: @ MayorDelMundo

When does it "end"?

The last U.S. troops left Iraq on Sunday, or so the narrative goes...as long as you ignore the inconvenient presence of robust special operations forces and almost 10,000 militarized contractors.  The occasion brings about a serious moment of reflection, at least for those who turn their eyes from pop culture and holiday hype long enough to notice.  The numbers tell the story, from casualties to troop numbers to monetary cost, and the regional and global impact for better or worse will take decades to fully tell.  But what I can't get over today is the simple storyline that this war is at an end just because large numbers of U.S. conventional units have crossed back into Kuwait, leaving massive amounts of hardware and infrastructure behind and a precarious political system in place.

I am absolutely not taking away from the achievements of our military, especially those who worked so hard, bled so often, and in too many cases, paid the ultimate price for the relative stability and democracy which now exist...but I am disputing the notion that the Iraq war is now somehow over, just as the Vietnam war wasn't over in 1973 and Afghanistan's (latest) war will not be over in 2014, no matter what transpires between now and then.  I take this stance because in our rush to declare history in an instant, we hype bookends when the moment strikes.  But the story of this conflict is no more easily surmised now than it was in the dire days of 2004-07, and there is much greater continuity once you extend it back to Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait in 1990 and Desert Shield/Storm.  It's worth recognizing, or better yet, celebrating, hundreds of thousands of our military men and women being home rather than in Iraq...but let's not pretend it is the end of a conflict.

Analysts: Questions remain as U.S. troops leave Iraq

The continuity of Afghanistan's war arc stretches much further, if you view it this way: the US/NATO invasion in 2001 was in response to the Taliban government's refusal to turn over al Qaeda leadership; the Taliban came to power as a result of the brutal civil war among Mujahideen factions largely armed by the U.S. and others; the Mujahideen first combined efforts to fight the Soviet Union, who was invited in by Afghanistan's communists...and on and on it goes.  What lends relevance to my dry attempt at a history lesson are the factions and the major players, most of whom are aligned now as they were in the Soviet-Afghan war, and whose animosity toward each other far precedes even that chapter.  For every instance in which President Karzai cozies up to Pakistan, his rivals from the former Northern Alliance get further skittish about the country's future direction, and the demarcation between the Pashtun regions and the northern/western areas comes further into focus.  Unlike in Iraq, stability as we recognize it doesn't have a prayer yet in Afghanistan, no matter what "end" date we have chosen.

Afghanistan bombs kill 58 in Kabul and Mazar-i-Sharif

Finally, I feel it's important to acknowledge the passing of one of our era's most courageous and unlikely leaders.  From rebellious playwright, to uniter of subjugated people, to gracious leader of a new (then-struggling) state, to advocate for freedom the world over, Vaclav Havel was more than up to the task.  The people of Afghanistan, with their own tradition of beautiful poetry, who yearn for a new beginning would do much worse than to look to the likes of him for inspiration...

Vaclav Havel, Czech leader and playwright, dies at 75

Tidbits from The Front

Northern France, 1917

Although where is "The Front" these days, anyway?  I'm glad you asked (didn't you?).  It's a topic with which most current military members are familiar, but the general public, not so much.

As far as I can tell, the term was popularized in the American consciousness back in World War I, when trench warfare produced very clearly defined lines of battle.  Those obvious front lines and rear areas generally continued through the Korean "police action" (we technically stopped calling them wars then), and progressively got more muddled with each conflict involving the United States.  In every case, there has always been at least some action that defied the designated battle lines, but by now it has become gospel that there is no rear area.  Soldiers and Marines who are regularly engaged in combat with insurgents in the south and east of Afghanistan may dispute that, with good reason...because regionally, there still often are.  But this year's spate of attacks in Kabul, Herat, Mazar-e-Sharif and elsewhere demonstrate that in a counterinsurgency, lines are rendered largely meaningless.

I find it difficult to get this point across to civilians who routinely ask, "Were you on the front lines?" or absolve me of such danger with, "At least you weren't at the front."  Believe me, I'm grateful that I wasn't on patrol in Sangin...but that doesn't mean that my risks were nil while a fobbit at Camp Leatherneck or especially Kandahar Air Field was in mortal danger.  Some who reside at Camp Eggers or the embassy are routinely out and about with officials (both Afghan and Coalition) whom the enemy consider to be high-value targets.  The Front is all relative.  And in the case of my headline today, it simply means Afghanistan.

Somewhat refuting my case, as I mentioned already, is the experience of those troops in the hot zones of the country, since physical lines of battle do still exist in places.  Here is an example of one in Kunar province, where I participated in operations five years ago and where our footprint (and unfortunately, that of the Afghan National Army) is now much-reduced...

It is a part of Afghanistan so isolated that when the Second Battalion, 27th Infantry arrived here from Hawaii in April, villagers thought they were Russian soldiers. The road serves as the region’s unofficial border with Pakistan: from its eastern side the Taliban influence politics in local villages and use mountain footpaths to bring weapons in from the wild tribal areas. American and Afghan security forces operate largely from the west.

I can't find if I wrote about it on this blog back then, but some Marines from 1/3 (ironically, also stationed in Hawaii) encountered the same confused reaction when we sat with village elders during Operation Mountain Lion in 2006.  We found it incredulous then that so little was known about the world beyond the Pech Valley, especially of what had taken place in Afghanistan...I suppose it's even more incredulous now.

A Mission’s Troubles Offer Window on an Unsteady Region in Afghanistan

Still, the training continues by the men and women of our armed forces and those of a couple dozen allies, in the hope that Afghan security forces can take the lead in providing national security.  Below is one encouraging story for those who believe change is possible even in the most stubborn places.  The bravery of these women who join Afghanistan's security forces never fails to amaze me.

“Day to day, for women in Afghanistan, Taliban are a big threat to them. I don’t care about the Taliban. My God is with me.”

Female Cadets Signal Slow Change in Afghan Police Force

Now, a two-parter to follow that left me shaking my head...

One thing many service members can agree on, whether they risk life and limb daily in remote combat outposts or rarely leave built-up bases, is that the regular presence of a friendly dog or cat can boost morale tremendously.  It's even more crucial for the former, since the canines "adopted" by troops often detect deadly danger out of service to their masters, and the felines control rodent populations of inviting FOBs.  Even in Kabul, regularly feeding my Casper and her brother gave me something to look forward to each day, as I often wrote...and leaving them was bittersweet, especially just as she had given birth to a litter.  This scene described is absolutely heartwarming, bringing me back to that bond and giving me even greater respect for the true dogs of war who willingly sacrifice their safety for the warriors who take them in.

Afghanistan dogs joyfully reunite with US military members at JFK airport

The irony here is that only a few days ago, our Department of Defense (through the Army and the Marine Corps) made it even more official that no contact with animals is permitted over there, due to the death of a U.S. Army soldier who'd earlier contracted rabies.  The policy was already in place; it was just loosely enforced in many spots due to the aforementioned tradeoffs of keeping pets.  My feeling is that while his death was tragic, it was avoidable, and the knee-jerk reaction will cause more harm than good...these dogs obviously provide desperately needed love and support to their adopters.  Just get freakin' tested and re-tested if you get bitten or suspect any other transmitted illness...a little leadership can enforce that.

Rabies death leads DoD to crack down on pets

Finally, there's this item.  I'd caution against interpreting it as anything more than it is (and surveys are notoriously unreliable especially in Afghanistan), but it represents hope -- maybe significant hope -- that the people will resist a return to Taliban rule in the future...

A survey released Tuesday by the San Francisco-based Asia Foundation and funded in part by the U.S. government found that 82 percent of Afghan adults back reconciliation and reintegration efforts with insurgent groups. However, it said that the number of people who said they sympathized with the aims of Taliban had dropped to 29 percent compared with 40 percent last year and 56 percent in 2009.

AP photo / Musadeq Sadeq, via Time.com

Afghan elders worry U.S. may leave too soon

Once again, incidentally, the only noteworthy coverage of the traditional Loya Jirga currently taking place in Kabul is of the failed rocket attack two days ago.  FAILED being the operative word there.  One errantly struck a market a half-mile away, wounding one, and the other was even farther from the mark.  While news is news, wouldn't it be more responsible of the press to report half as stridently on what's taking place inside the tent, and maybe of the strategic context in which it's taking place?

Another Setback

Because this assassination is too significant to ignore, even if I have no information or insight that can't be gleaned from news accounts...

Turban bomb kills key Afghan political leader

The headline (for once) understates the weight of what happened in Kabul two days ago.  Burhanuddin Rabbani was tabbed last year by President Karzai to chair the Afghan peace council, the vehicle by which the powers that be hope the government can persuade at least most of the insurgency to negotiate a peace.  He was seen as the only logical choice, a past national leader (Afghanistan's president from 1992 to '96) who carried weight with both the Northern Alliance factions and the Pashtuns.  Although he presided over the most tragic of modern Afghan eras -- the brutal civil war which destroyed Kabul and paved the way for the Taliban's takeover -- he had emerged from the war against the Soviet Union as a Mujahiddin leader from the north and a skilled power broker.

Kabul, 1993 - Filmmaker Richard Mackenzie with Pres. Rabbani.

Richard, a good friend, kindly shared this from his archives.

Rabbani was killed in much the same way that his one-time chief Ahmad Shah Massoud was, ten years ago this month...by politely receiving guests.  In Massoud's case it was phony journalists, and in Rabbani's it was phony peace envoys, but in each instance the bombers deceived hosts about their intentions and waited for days to get close to their respective targets.  The attackers exploited ancient customs of hospitality to ambush great men who posed a threat to their unpopular but brutal organizations of terror.  In Massoud's time it was a camera casing the bomb, in Rabbani's it was a turban -- a symbol of piety.  But as we have seen time and time again, there is no pious respect from those who kill in the name of a twisted version of faith to which they wish to subject their country.

Incidentally, yesterday was the UN's designated International Day of Peace...a day I found so hopeful last year when I had the chance to commemorate it with hundreds of Afghan schoolchildren.  I hope that this most recent setback to peace in that land doesn't turn out to be as significant as it now seems.

Ten Years

Yesterday's date stood out to me.  Not as obvious as the unforgettable 9/11/01, it was still a memorable night in that bygone era preceding the terror.

I lived in Hoboken, NJ, at the time, and went with my cousin and a friend to see a great blues-rock band at the old Wetlands Theater in NYC.  We stopped by my sister Meg's bachelorette party first, to say hello to three of my sisters and her friends (which rewarded me with the hilarious sight of two of them in glittered cowboy hats, incidentally).  I'll absolutely never forget looking at the World Trade Center's twin towers when we left that show much later, sometime after midnight -- they always served as my directional marker downtown, and would tell me which way the PATH station was.  But that night, I swear I took a longer look...it was a clear night and the lights of the sky-high buildings looked strangely beautiful.  It turned out to be the last time I saw them from lower Manhattan.

That sight, frozen in time, was vividly on my mind when I realized it was Sept. 8th...and I'm just glad to this day that none of my family or friends were there for any reason on the 11th.  I feel for everyone who did lose loved ones in the attacks that day -- not only in New York, but in DC and in Pennsylvania -- and for all who've suffered losses to terrorism and war since then.

The attacks on 9/11 would initially lead to my quest to join the Fire Department of New York, which I pursued for a couple of years while working other jobs, and eventually my return to a Marine uniform and two deployments to Afghanistan.  In so many ways did those audacious strikes affect my reality -- and that of countless millions around the world -- but it's often hard for me to draw a direct connection between that marred morning and my subsequent experiences.

What could have been, for me...

As a result, many of us who served there read countless analyses of what's gone right, what's gone wrong, and what can still be 'fixed.'  Linked below is an insightful article on Afghanistan's last decade, with perspectives from a variety of Afghans on what it has meant.  In particular, I was struck by the comments by Dr. Mahyuddin Mehdi, an MP from the north, on why the Karzai government has failed...


I think the wrong system was put in place here. I have always had issue with this centralised system because it gives the authority to one person, which then translates to the authority of one tribe. Karzai, for example, did not emerge based on his merits, but rather through the recommendation of one tribe.  Centralised power is problematic. Authority needs to be distributed, shared. There needs to be a prime minister that is accountable to the parliament.



He continues with a prediction that should give serious pause to those who believe we could exit now without a total collapse on our hands...


But if the international forces leave today, I think all this will falter within a week. Nothing has been institutionalised. People lack trust in these structures, because governments actions have made them question everything from elections to the parliament.  Our security forces are not strong enough to cope with the enemy at a time when the threat remains the same threat of ten years ago.  The situation is not much different from when the Soviets were about to withdraw. A similar vacuum would be left.

A crafty politician & tribal chief, not a savior.

Each story contained is worth reading, again -- for awareness, if nothing else.  Sahera Sharif, an MP from Khost, points out the crumbling security in that region between the major elections, something that certainly rings true based on every indicator.  The others present contrasting views on whether life in Afghanistan is better or worse compared to a decade ago, and where things are headed...

The 9/11 decade: Afghanistan's new beginning?

My friend and counterpart from Kabul -- who also showed me the ropes when I arrived, along with John -- forwarded that.  Joe also made a salient point about the outlook ahead.  We spoke often within the team about Afghanistan's prospects for becoming like South Korea if a steady U.S. and international presence remained in place, due to how similar a fractured, impoverished and war-weary Korea appeared in the 1950's and 60's, and he just returned from an exercise there...


It struck me as capturing most of the reactions and attitudes I've seen or heard over the past years about Afghanistan and US involvement there. It could be useful as a primer for communicators heading to or in Afghanistan as well. I do believe that, if we had the resources and will to stay in Afghanistan for the next 60 years (which we do not), Kabul would be closer to what Seoul is today than Karachi. But, that reminds me that in reality the experts instead state that in 30 years Afghanistan may at best be like Pakistan today (e.g., a JFK school scholar wrote back in 2009, I believe). Anyway, Afghanistan brought many excellent experiences amidst the tragedy that brought us all there in the first place this time around, 9/11.

Joe & I...because you all miss the 'stache dearly!

What we heartily agree on is what an honor and a privilege it was to work with each other and each member of our Public Affairs Development Team, as it was to work with countless service members and colleagues, both Coalition and Afghan.  It was likewise an honor to serve with most of the soldiers and Marines I got to know in eastern Afghanistan in 2006...many of whom have also returned on additional tours, and/or served in Iraq since then.

Here's hoping that the next decade brings a measure of peace, with continued vigilance...and in fact a great stride toward both goals would be vastly increased global familiarity and awareness.  Perhaps that should be my next area of focus?

...or you never really leave?

Afghan children wave to U.S. Marines in the Gereshk Valley in Helmand province, southern Afghanistan, Sunday, Aug. 28, 2011. (AP Photo/Brennan Linsley)

Because that's how it feels sometimes.  It seems that every single newsworthy development there, or new report on some angle of it, or anecdote from those still fighting the fight, captures my attention like nothing else.  It's all mandatory reading, even if I'm not operating in any capacity to do anything with the information -- both new and old.  Here is the big news dominating the past few days...well, not exactly dominating, since Afghan news only does when an aircraft crash occurs.

The 66 U.S. service members killed this month eclipses the previous record of 65 killed in July 2010, according to an Associated Press tally. Nearly half the August deaths occurred when insurgents shot down a Chinook helicopter Aug. 6, killing 30 American troops, mostly elite Navy SEALs.

I remember well the almost breathless reporting just over a year ago when that month took the "record" (what a macabre use of the word).  It's an obviously misleading number anyway if it's being used to mark success or failure, which it usually is, due to the number killed in that fateful Chinook.  What the story could mention is that American casualties are still actually down from this point in 2010, despite the aggressive operations against the insurgency in Helmand, Kandahar and other restive provinces.

A U.S. Marine Scout-Sniper aims his rifle during an exchange of fire with Taliban militants, in Helmand province, southern Afghanistan, Sunday, Aug. 28, 2011. (AP Photo/Brennan Linsley)

Kudos to the AP, on the other hand, for including a mention of other casualties in the NATO-led coalition...something that usually goes unreported in U.S. media.

Besides the 66 Americans killed so far this month, the NATO coalition suffered the loss of 14 other troops: two British, four French, one New Zealander, one Australian, one Polish and five others whose nationalities have not yet been disclosed.

So far this year, 403 international service members, including at least 299 Americans, have been killed in Afghanistan.

This month America's deadliest in long Afghan war

Calcium Ammonium Nitrate Fertilizer, used in an IED

Another story which caught my attention centers on ammonium nitrate, a serious and significant issue...which therefore tends to garner few stories.  It was a major focus of the Afghan-Pakistani-Coalition meeting I attended late last year, and which take place regularly.  I recall much talk about what is being done and what should be done, which I suppose is how these affairs tend to go...but from the sound of it, that's all it was...talk.  In the meantime, the material is used constantly in deadly bombs.

Such bombs, typically buried and detonated remotely or by pressure plates, have killed more than 719 Americans and wounded more than 7,440 since the conflict began in 2001, along with thousands of Afghan troops and civilians. Last year's U.S. death toll — 252 — was as high as the two previous years combined, and 2011 is shaping up to be just as bloody.

Speaking of that particular tripartite meeting, my former colleague Gen. Azimi is quoted, voicing again the frustration that Afghan officials feel over the issue.

On Aug. 17, authorities in Afghanistan's Helmand province said they seized 200 sacks of ammonium nitrate that had been smuggled from Pakistan. Photos of the sacks, which had been partially buried, showed they were made by Pakarab.

"All of this chemical is coming from the south and the east," said Mohammad Zahir Azimi, a spokesman for the Afghan Defense Ministry. "We want Pakistan to control it."

AP IMPACT: Pakistani fertilizer fuels Afghan bombs

If all of this news on the human cost isn't depressing enough, there is the other cost to consider.  The Commission on Wartime Contracting released its much-anticipated report on waste and fraud throughout the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.  While I suspect it was more prevalent in Iraq due to its scope, I have pointed out before that one never has to look very far to see money being burned...

Panel tallies massive waste and fraud in wartime U.S. contracts

Joint Sustainment Academy Southwest, Camp Leatherneck, Helmand province, Aug. 23 

(photo courtesy of NTM-A)

Alright, so it looks as if I lack an optimistic view this evening (aka late night)...but it's hard to locate optimism from this distance.  Fortunately there is, as always, progress in the training mission.  This is the effort on which it all hinges, according to our leadership -- the professionalization of Afghanistan's security forces.  If anyone can do it, it's our many trainers: Air Force personnel working with the fledgling Afghan force at airbases, US Soldiers conducting joint patrols in Kandahar, German police officers relentlessly training recruits in the north, Marines imparting tactics to special new police response units in Helmand province, to name a few...

Marines and the ANP – Special Tactics Mission Training

I'm willing to bet that some of the Jarheads conducting that training are activated Reservists, as are many of the individual Marines who augment our joint commands in Afghanistan, Iraq, North Africa and elsewhere.  That came to mind as our component, Marine Forces Reserve, was designated 95 years ago this week, in time to immediately boost its numbers to help turn the tide of World War I in France.  The size has fluctuated ever since, but it remains vital to the Corps and to the nation's needs.

Although it's a very productive charity, and great visibility for the Marine Reserve, we do a heck of a lot more than take charge of Toys for Tots each holiday season.  Never more was this proven than during World War II, as this stunning statistic demonstrates...

Of the nearly 600,000 Marines called to serve [in WWII], approximately 70% were reserves. And of the 82 Marine Medals of Honor bestowed during the war, 44 went to reservists.

From the annals of USMC history came this series of facts about Reserve involvement in the Korean War, in which their rapid mobilization made an enormous impact...

In 1950, the Korean War saw the Marine Corps expand from 75,000 regulars to a peak strength of 261,000 Marines, most of whom were reservists. Complete mobilization of the organized ground Reserve had been accomplished in just 53 days, from July 20 to Sept. 11, 1950. Of the Marines participating in the Inchon invasion, 17 percent were reservists. By June 1951, the proportion of reservists in Marine Corps units in Korea had increased to nearly 50 percent, and during the war, 48 percent of all 1st Marine Aircraft Wing combat sorties were flown by Marine reservists. Between July 1950 and June 1953, about 122,000 reservists, both recruits and veterans, saw active duty with the Marine Corps.

Marine Forces Reserve Celebrates 95th Birthday

Happy birthday to all of my brethren and citizen-warriors, both now and those who've gone before.  Semper Fi!

The pull to return...

Kabul, Jan '11: A few of the locals

A Returning Soldier Answers the Inevitable Question: ‘Why?’

// When someone asks, I realize that I have about 30 seconds to condense years of frustration, painful memories, self-justifications, introspection, conversations with comrades, insecurity, guilt, resentment and humble prayers into an answer that is honest and accessible. Because the moment I open my mouth, interest and comfort begin to wane. //

No, it's not me...this time.  The post is written by Jonathan Raab, a soldier with the New York National Guard.  But it's an excellent summation of the motivations behind deploying again back to a place like Afghanistan.  In particular, I think most of us can relate to the isolation that often accompanies being back in the States, whether in conversation with friends or strangers, or just in that "petty" or "self-absorbed" culture which seems to dominate our daily lives far too often.  When it's already tough to feel that you've left the most meaningful work you could be doing, it eats at you.

This line, one that I was asked repeatedly when preparing to return there, is one that I now ask a friend who's about to return for a very long stretch of time.  While we've spoken so much that I already know the answers, I still am blown away by the willingness to fork over the next three years of one's life to a cause that, despite the best efforts of literally hundreds of thousands, is on shaky legs.

// Why would any sane person want to return to risk life and limb in a war that has no clear objective and faltering popular support? //

There is no easy answer.  But we go anyway.  And guys like Dave agree to go for years...and dedicated friends such as John and Pam have already logged years there.  And our Afghan advisors, without whom we'd be utterly lost, risk their lives to help us.  Truly an incredible bunch, all of them.

So what's the latest on the mission?  The item below is based on an interview just last week with the commanding general of NATO Training Mission Afghanistan, Lt. Gen. Caldwell...the man responsible for standing up, training and equipping Afghan security forces.  My thoughts on a few excerpts follow, because I can't help myself.

Afghan forces need help post-pullout: commander

Lieutenant-General William Caldwell indicated that several thousand international trainers could be needed to support the mission until at least 2020 in an interview with AFP.


"I'm very confident that the Afghans can in fact take the lead for security by December 2014 -- there's no question they can do it," Caldwell said.


- I'm heartened to see the honesty about what the Afghan government needs from us, at a bare minimum, beginning to emerge.  And I would still take any bet against our involvement being done by the end of 2020.  As for the all-important "take the lead" by 2014, well...expect some continued gymnastic semantics in order to demonstrate that a true transfer of security control takes place by then.

Some diplomats and Western officials in Kabul suggest it could be up to 10 years before the Afghan government can afford to fund its own security forces.


He put the figure for this at "maybe 3,000 people, uniform-type people, police and army" plus financial support to help the Afghan government pay for the security forces, possibly for another six years.


- These are still incredibly optimistic -- probably completely unrealistic -- estimations, in my opinion.  And that of anyone familiar with economics and/or the state of Afghanistan in 2011.  But it's the nature of the beast, I suppose...only in increments does a venture of this scale continue apace.

Photo by Petty Officer 2nd Class Ernesto Hernandez-Fonte

_____________________________________________________

Finally, I've got to pass another blog shout-out to my Army brother Steve in Kuwait (at the moment...I think...they bounce around) on the occasion of his birthday this week.  He sent a recap of his platoon's recent partnership training in Kazakhstan, which I took the liberty of sharing below.  This type of cross-cultural combined multinational training happens a lot more than most Americans realize, but few & far between are those who've carried it out in the world's largest landlocked country!

Ah jaqse, brother (he tells me that essentially means, "it's all good")...

2LT Steve with Kazakh colleague Serj, Aug 2011

KAZAKHSTAN TRAINING EXERICISE UPDATE

     2^nd Platoon recently received the opportunity to travel to Kazakhstan to take part in the multi-national tactical exercise Steppe Eagle, now in its 9^th year. As the Kazakhstan Government celebrates its 20^th year of independence, they held their most populous exercise to date, hosting troops from Great Britain, Lithuania, Kyrgyzstan and the United States to help their bid for certification into NATO. Our platoon arrived in the former capital city of Almaty on August 1^st, and fell under the oversight of Army Central Command (ARCENT) who controlled all the logistics of the American ground troops, including a National Guard infantry company from Colorado with whom we shared our living space.

     During the first week on ground, 2^nd Platoon spent time getting adjusted to new surroundings and temperatures (much cooler than Kuwait!), refining our tactics in preparation for the start of training, and getting to know some of the local Soldiers and cadets that occupied the compound with us. The Opening Ceremony for the training was held on August 8^th and included a dazzling concert displaying various cultures of the local people, demonstrating their musical and artistic talents. The following day, our platoon received AK assault rifles with which to go through situational tactical exercises, which we did for three days before beginning the field training portion of the exercise (FTX). The AKs were definitely different (and much louder) than the weapons we are used to firing, but working with them was a unique experience for most every Soldier. During the 3-day FTX, we trained around the clock executing both day and night operations which included guard tower security, vehicle check point, quick reaction force, and patrols every other hour.

      We also got the chance to wear some civilian clothes and get to travel outside the training area on Culture Day. Starting on the morning of August 13^th, we rode a bus to Almaty to see the War Memorial; then rode up to the scenic overlook site of Koktobe for lunch; and after visiting the vast marketplace in the city, we had a buffet-style Kazakh dinner and even got to enjoy a couple alcoholic beverages if we so chose too. In addition, right before the Closing Ceremony on the 18^th, we enjoyed another “fun day” as the Soldiers broke down into teams and competed in Sports Day against the Kazakhs in soccer, volleyball, track, and tug-of-war among other events.

      Unfortunately we did have multiple cases of a virus-like sickness arise among the Platoon, and overall would have liked a bit more side-by-side interaction with the Kazakh Soldiers (both points were brought to higher command’s attention post-exercise). But we were all thankful for clean latrines, good food (with a lot of help of two of our Platoon’s 92G personnel “cooks”), ample internet access, and the overall experience gained from taking part in such a multilateral exercise. This is definitely something all of 2^nd Platoon’s Soldiers will enjoy telling their grandchildren all about some day.

Thank you,

2LT Stephen Huvane

Shadows

July '11: Never far from Afghan-looking rocks in Boulder

I mulled over this post's name for awhile, trying in vain to arrive at a title/theme that described in some way both Afghanistan's current state and my own.  In the land that time forgot, the situation is ever-changing, while my post-deployment life is still stagnant in a professional sense.  Working for peace and stability in Kabul was purposeful and in the national and international interest, but the idea of replicating that significance in anything stateside is something I find exceedingly difficult, to say the least.  I stubbornly want to live in my (still recently) adopted home of Colorado, but haven't made progress towards reconciling those desires of what I personally consider satisfying employment and ideal environment.  Perhaps the shadow of impact and interaction in Afghanistan does stalk me again, as it did for much of the time between 2006 and 2010.

Karzai's "surrogate father," Jan Mohammad Khan

In Afghanistan's power circles, it must be President Karzai and his senior allies sensing the shadows creeping closer.  Closely following the assassination of his brother in Kandahar came the killing this week in Kabul of his longtime mentor and power broker in Uruzgan province, Jan Mohammad Khan.  While the headline and premise of the story below may at least border on the sensational, it does seem that Karzai is becoming further isolated all the time...a trend that has tended to result in his reaching out to Pakistan and even "soft" Taliban with increasing frequency.  You don't achieve lofty positions without making enemies, and in Afghanistan it is a particularly lethal wrath you often sow...for the cagiest, the name of the game is survival.  As for its impact on the national psyche (and by extension, our goals there), I can't say it any better than my friend and former director Dave did:

Another old-timer killed. Conventional wisdom is that the Taliban will lay low until the completion of the American withdrawal. I disagree. The next 18 months will be far more violent than the last. Tighter rules of engagement will reduce American losses, meaning that the violence will be off most American's radar, but Afghan civilians, soldiers, and police will suffer greatly.

Afghanistan government under threat after second assassination in a week

LtCol Qahar addresses regional police PAOs in Balkh province

(Qahar is an old friend of mine from the Defense Ministry)

All over Afghanistan there still remain stories of progress among the security forces: new achievements and strengthening capabilities all the time.  The great question, of course and as always, is how much time is needed...and how much we as a Coalition are willing to spare.  I was pleased to read this week about a milestone in the north, which you can read about below.  Particularly meaningful to me was the role of LtCol Abdul Qahar, in uniform in the photo above, since I recall the day he learned he was to be designated the new Public Affairs Officer for the Afghan National Army's 209th Corps, located in Mazar-e-Sharif.  Wishing him, his soldiers, and the advisors/mentors who work with them daily, the very best as the transition train rolls on.

“We need to send one message to all Afghan people,” said Qahar, through an interpreter. “We need to show people our joint effort in the transition [of the country’s security to the ANSF].”

ANA hosts first northern public affairs conference

One aspect of our Afghan effort that never fails to amaze me is the quality of individuals we have in so many crucial roles.  Attached below is a story that highlights the kind of extraordinary service member who exemplifies sacrifice and dedication.  From a tenured position as a Long Island high school teacher to a Navy corpsman taking care of Marines in volatile Helmand province, Darryl St. George's story is one worth reading (for more, you can click on the 'Morning Edition' audio clip at the top of the web page).  Jarheads find reasons every day to appreciate the "docs" in their midst who provide care...and St. George is clearly one who returns that appreciation for the trigger pullers.

"I couldn't think of being with a better group of guys than these Marines. They've got more heart than anybody I've ever met," he says.

NPR: A Teacher Leaves The Classroom For Afghanistan

On a lighter note, I enjoyed this item sent to me by a friend in Kabul, and thought it worth sharing.  Some of these points I've covered before or at least touched on (particularly those referring to food and culture, of course -- and the only proper use of "Afghani"), but it's an interesting and informative look at some of the distinctions that many Afghans eagerly point out, should you have the opportunity to gain their friendship and conversation.  Until next time, then...

BBC: Ten facts you may not know about Afghanistan

The Other Karzai

Elders meet with Ahmed Wali Karzai in Kandahar, 2009

(photo via the New York Times)

Despite the relative lick of attention it received in the United States, the assassination of Ahmed Wali Karzai in Kandahar yesterday was an extremely significant development in Afghanistan.  By all accounts, Karzai was essentially the uncrowned King of Kandahar, head of the provincial council and known as "Mr. Fix It."  He seemed to have his hands in everything that took place in southern Afghanistan -- much of the crucial 'Pashtun belt' -- and was alleged by many to be profiting handsomely from the drug trade as well as other lucrative illegal enterprises.  Technically a staunch ally of the NATO-led Coalition, his forces nonetheless served his best interests, it was often said.  Most importantly, he delivered whatever his brother (President Karzai) needed in Kandahar, and the head of state reciprocated by allegedly protecting him and his businesses.

The problem, of course, is "What now?"  As I wrote in a quick note when posting the link to Facebook, it is often said that nature abhors a vacuum.  Those who seek to reach their goals through fomenting instability and violence, however, love one.  And this killing will almost certainly create a power struggle or struggles as various families, tribes, gangs and consortiums fight for the pieces of AWK's empire.  It's not going to be pretty.  I remember hearing what a problem it presented to have the president's own brother profiting from all he did and essentially running the south with impunity...but I don't recall hearing any realistic alternative solutions, unfortunately.

NYT: Half Brother of Afghan President Is Killed in Kandahar

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"Sure, you would like to shake the hand of the Navy SEAL who capped Osama bin Laden. But you have a lot more riding on whether Lt. Gen. William Caldwell’s mission is successful."

A well-written piece in the Marine Corps Times last week focused on my most recent command, NATO Training Mission Afghanistan, and its commanding general.  The article highlights the immense challenges facing the command, the differing political views (here in the States and among allies) on its viability, and most gratifying to those of us who've served it, the tremendous importance of the mission -- given our nation's stated goal of leaving behind a "good enough" government backed by a capable Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police.  Although troops all over the country can find themselves in mentoring roles, it is on this relatively small training command (only 2-3% of ISAF as of last year) that the 'main effort' really hinges...transition is the name of the game, and NTM-A has the ball on it.

Lt. Gen. Caldwell takes command of NTM-A, Nov. '09

MC Times: Caldwell aims to build up Afghan forces

Finally, I wrote of my younger brother Steve in my last post, currently deployed as a 2LT in the Army.  This is a fitting time to mention my older brother, former LCDR Patrick (aka Slappy), US Navy.  He celebrates 40 years of livin' today, and set the example for me to try to emulate as an officer and a leader.  I would say gentleman too, but I don't want him to suffer flashbacks of Lou Gossett Jr. terrorizing him as he tried out for the Navy.  Happy birthday, brother!

As a sobering reminder of how long four decades can actually be, this is a photo titled "Kabul, 1970" which I've seen on a few internet archives.  It's unfathomable for anyone who knows the city now...

Big changes afoot...

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"There will be some battles, there will be suicide attacks, and bomb attacks. But we in the Afghan forces are prepared to replace the foreign forces and I'm confident the army has enough capacity and ability."
- Gen. Mohammad Zahir Azimi, on the coming transition period. 

Reuters, 6-29-2011: Smoke billows from the Intercontinental Hotel

Within one week of that statement by my dear colleague Gen. Azimi, known to you who've followed along as Spokesman for Afghanistan's Ministry of Defense, came the latest test of that resolve -- an assault on Kabul's iconic Intercontinental Hotel this past Tuesday.  The link below provides details, most troubling of which may be the accounts by witnesses of some police fleeing the scene rather than fighting the insurgents.  As always, I caution those trying to understand the security situation there to separate army from police, a practice made all the more difficult by the insistence of the training command responsible for their collective development to lump them together into a vague "Afghan National Security Force" category.  As we often pointed out in my office, we are not the "Armed Force" of the United States, and that doesn't even take into account law enforcement...so why we foist a strange term on their makeup of security forces is beyond me.

Afghan Taliban sends message with hotel attack

More significant than the most recent attack, though, is the drastic change in war -- er, counterterrorism -- policy just announced by our administration in the US.  If the early speculation is correct, it amounts to a complete and total re-imagining of how we plan to combat our sworn enemies in the not-too-distant future.  My initial reaction is that limiting our effort, at least in Afghanistan, to strikes of a "targeted, surgical" nature appeals to most of the American public (at least those aware that we are at war) who are weary of a long conflict and its costs and sacrifice, and to a largely risk-averse leadership anxious to see fewer Americans return in coffins.  My concern, however, is that abandoning an approach of more carrot than stick will greatly fray the trust between coalition members and the Afghans...the very trust desperately needed to obtain intelligence that will deliver 'enemies of Afghanistan' to justice, rather than settle old feuds between families or tribes.  The fewer boots we have on the ground (both military and civilian), the harder it is to tell when we are being played by one side or another.

White House unveils retooled plan to hunt al-Qaida

I'll say it a million times if I have to...beyond a core group which mainly hides safely in Pakistan, the Taliban today is not one cohesive entity, as it's often thought of and may once have been.  It's often a moniker of convenience, more akin to a collective term for an array of those who have an interest in bringing down the Afghan government or taking over regional control, whether it's fundamentalists in the South, arms dealers on the Pakistan border in the East, or Uzbek separatists in the Northwest, or any other insurgent group.  It takes a great deal of conversation on the ground by many participants, leading to long relationships built among the community's influencers, to sort out who is who and what the various agendas really are. While this report focuses on al Qaeda, its implementation in Afghanistan specifically may mean what many of us someday expected: A pull back from nation-building and a reborn reliance upon 'light-footprint' death from above.

The big lurking question is, again, how ready are the Afghan military and police forces for vastly increased responsibility?  The answer, I'm afraid, is not very.  As I observed back in 2006, it will take generations of effort to stand a chance of leaving a nation capable of fending off takeovers from within and from its often-nefarious neighbors.  Abandoning that, while perhaps necessary from our national self-interest, will most likely have dire consequences for its survivability and the protection of its women and minorities...and that should at least be acknowledged by those making the decisions.

NCO graduation ceremony, Camp Ghazi - Oct '10

Another point worth mentioning is that TRANSITION is so much more than just training forces to ably fight the enemy.  It is everything imaginable, from introducing basic hygienic practices to the slaughterhouses which feed the army to teaching handyman maintenance to unskilled workers.  It is rudimentary literacy training (as often detailed), not to mention administration, communication, logistics, etc...the list goes on.  A recent story from NTM-A highlights how early in that process we still are, at this point in time.

Coalition plans first building transition to Afghans

That must be the clearest day ever in dusty Kandahar

On an entirely different subject, this week marks my younger brother's deployment to the Middle East as a 2nd Lt in the Army, and I couldn't be prouder of Steve.  He's mature beyond his age, and he'll need it as a platoon leader taking on various training missions in a few different countries.  It's a strange feeling being on the other end of a deployment in the family for the first time in many years...it's not me off to parts unknown, it's the kid who arrived when I was beginning high school!  If he manages to blog on his experiences, I'll certainly link to it...he's in for an interesting adventure over the next year.

Jan '11 - Year of transition for our family, too

Last year at this time, I wrote of how I better be doing something special for the Summer Solstice, and visiting him during his last days before leaving Fort Lewis was exactly that.  In fact, we caught the legendary Solstice Parade in Seattle's Fremont neighborhood, and then ushered in the longest day of the year with in Olympia (WA) with my good friend from NTM-A, Chief Gordon.  There are worse ways to greet the Summer than catching up with an outstanding leader over delicious craft brews and standout bluegrass music while wishing my brother a safe and successful deployment.  As our dad is fond of saying...Vaya con Dios, hermano!

Crusty major & fresh-faced lieutenant - Seattle, June '11

Good times in the Pacific NW w-Chief Gordon

April 2011 - Reuniting with my director Dave Beeksma in LA.

The highly inappropriate backdrop for two Afghan hands was my idea.

Just because...